GREENPEACE BRIEFING

There is no longer a scientific debate about whether humans are altering the climate but rather by how much and how fast. In December 1995, a group of 2, 500 of the world's leading scientists, released a landmark report which found that humans are altering the world's climate. They concluded that if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions there will be "significant loss of life". "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" ... "Climate change is likely to have wide ranging and mostly adverse effect on human health, with significant loss of life." The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report. This year will be crucial in the international politics of climate change and its solutions.

December will see a major conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) to be held in Kyoto,Japan. The next ten months will see intensive negotiations in the leadup to the Kyoto meeting. Governments have already agreed to negotiate a new Protocol the Convention containing specific carbondioxide reductions. The issue at stake is the extent and effectiveness of these reductions. Only by agreeing to undertake immediate and ongoing reductions in greenhouse gases can nations ofthe world meet their own pledge to protect the climate from "dangerous human interference" and avoid irrevocable disruption to the world's ecology, food supplies and economies. This was the objective of the FCCC signed at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 Solutions to the burning of fossil fuels, responsible for nearly half of the greenhouse gas problem, are available now: energy efficiency, solar and other renewable energies. The problem is political not technical.

There will be three preparatory meetings before the Kyoto conference. The first is the sixth meeting of a body known officially as the Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM 6). This meeting, is from March 3-10, will set the framework for the Kyoto negotiations with national governments expected to table their proposals for greenhouse gas reduction targets and timetables. The same group will meet in July (AGBM 7) and in September (AGBM 8). The major political players The United States, Japan and the European Union will be critical players in determining the success or failure of the process.

Currently the US, one of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters, appears to be politically divided. President Clinton has advocated strong international action during a recent trip to Australia but US diplomats have stalled and delayed discussions at recent UN negotiations. It is essential that Japan, as host to the Climate convention meeting, plays a strong leadership role. Thus far there have been no signs of such leadership, despite Japan's placement at the cutting edge in emerging world markets in solar and other renewable technology.

The European Union has traditionally been a progressive force in the climate negotiations, but is currently distracted by internal differences. France in particular, and also Spain, appear to be unwilling to support strong targets for CO2 reduction. An Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has been formed by 38 nations vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and increases in storm severity resulting from climatic change. In 1994 this group presented a blueprint for a legal Protocol, containing commitments for industrialised nations of a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by the year 2005 - similar to the "Toronto target" identified in 1988.

Not surprisingly the world's rich, influential fossil fuel industry have consistently tried to undermine political action on climate change. Using industrial front groups such as the US "Global Climate Coalition" and the "International Climate Change Partnership", oil, coal and car interests have challenged the credibility of climate science and climate models, and scaremongered about the possible economic and employment impact of reducing CO2 emissions. They have repeatedly tried to deflect attention away from the West's responsibility to take action, ignored the cost of "no action", and have moved to suppress the development of clean energy sources. Australia has aligned itself with the fossil fuel industry, as it chooses to protect its coal industry over any other domestic or international concern, having rejected legally binding targets in 1996.

The Greenpeace Position

To prevent dangerous human interference with the climate will requirea global commitment to the long-term phaseout of the use of fossil fuels, oil, coal and gas. The first steps to be taken at Kyoto include: . Legally binding emission reduction of 20 per cent by the year 2005 relative to 1990 levels for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as put forward in the AOSIS protocol proposal . The targets should be set on a gas-by-gas basis, with CO2 as the priority and should not use the net approach. All quantifiable and verifiable gases and their sources should be included in the emission reduction targets set in the protocol. . Emissions targets should be set in absolute terms, not per capita .

Commitments for Annex 1 Parties (industrialised countries) to introduce policies and measures which are identified as requiring agreement and international coordination in order for Parties to meet their emission commitments . A mechanism that requires and facilitates, in accordance with the precautionary principle, the strengthening of Parties' commitments towards preventing dangerous climate change and, in particular the regular review of binding emission reduction commitments; . Commitments from Parties for the adoption of minimum rates of introduction of renewable energy per annum; . Separate, verifiable obligations to protect (carbon) sinks (e.g. growing forests which absorb carbon dioxide) and enhance reservoirs of carbon, taking into account concurrent obligations in the conven on on biological diversity and on desertification. Measures which will advance the implementation of Article 4.1 without introducing new commitments for non-Annex 1Parties

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE
POLICY DIRECTOR BILL HARE 00-31-6-534 33454
OR PRESS OFFICER HOLGER ROENITZ ON 31-6-534 17945
OR JON WALTER 31-20-523 6222

SHORT POLITICAL CHRONOLOGY OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

Oct 1988 : "The Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere." This was the first major international meeting of government and scientists to discuss action on climate change. Governments voluntarily pledged to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by the year 2005 (the so-called "Toronto target").

This meeting also established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), an international group of over 300 senior climate scientists charged with peer reviewing and reporting on the science, impacts and responses to climate change.

Aug 1990: Release of the IPCC's First Assessment Report. This report said 60 to 80% cuts in CO2 emissions were needed to stabilise the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - already 25% higher than before industrialisation in the late 19th century.

June 1992: In a hail of self-congratulation, the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was finalised at the Rio Earth Summit. A total of 165 governments, plus the European Union, have now signed this Convention. As a first step, industrialised countries agreed to stabilise their CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. However, this agreement was non-binding and has not been implemented by most countries.

Mar 1995: The Berlin "Climate Summit." The first Ministerial level full meeting of the Convention, also known as the Conference of the Parties (COP 1), was held. The Berlin meeting agreed that the Convention is too weak to meet its own objective of protecting the climate, particularly as it says nothing about the post-2000 period. Parties agreed the "Berlin Mandate" to negotiate a Protocol or other legal agreement by the time of the third Conference of Parties (COP3 in Kyoto) containing specific "emissions limitations and reductions.

Dec 1995: The IPCC Second Assessment Report, involving 2500 scientists and experts, concludes that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" - that is we are already seeing the first signs of climate change.

July 1996: The Second Conference of Parties (COP2). Held in Geneva, this meeting made little progress on CO2 targets or timetables for a new Protocol. However, the vast majority of Ministers present at the meeting signed onto the "Geneva Declaration" which says: . the new IPCC science provides the basis for "urgently strengthening action"; ... the world faces "significant, often adverse impacts" from climate change; . legally binding "significant overall reductions" in greenhouse gas emissions should be negotiated by the next Conference of the Parties (COP3)

Mar 1997: AGBM 6. A preparatory meeting at which all proposals for the Kyoto climate convention meeting in December, must be tabled.