Abstract
Preventing dangerous climate change will involve limiting both the rate and
magnitude of climate change over the next century to levels that natural and human
systems can tolerate without significant damage. This report shows the implications
for overall fossil fuel use, in the form of a ‘carbon budget’, over the next century if
the global community is to prevent dangerous climate change.
It is demonstrated that it is only possible to burn a small fraction of the total oil, coal
and gas that has already been discovered, if such dangerous changes are to be
avoided. Even the reserves of fossil fuels that are considered economic to recover
now, with no advances in technology, are far greater than the total allowable ‘carbon
budget’.
This conclusion is shown to be robust to a wide range of assumptions about how
sensitive the climate is to human interference, and the levels of change that might be
considered unacceptable or dangerous.
Comparison of the ‘carbon budget’ with projections of possible future energy sources
nevertheless suggests that such a target is both technically and economically feasible.
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W.L. Hare Climate Policy Director Greenpeace International 
